Friday, October 2, 2026

Is Casey's Stock a Buy After 23% Haircut?

Casey's opens new store Oct. 1, 2026, at 4020 SW Gage, Topeka


By Michael Hooper

Stock in Casey's General Stores (CASY) recently suffered a 23% haircut.

Traders sold the stock down after the company reported higher than expected operating expenses, rising 8% YOY in Q1 ended July 31 and did not raise its outlook. Same-store fuel gallons turned negative (-0.3%) for the first time in several quarters.

The company beat expectations for earnings and revenue in the quarter. They also made $0.47 cents per gallon on fuel sold, a near record, while navigating the oil market during the US-Israeli war against Iran.

I toured the new Casey’s General Store, 4020 SW 6th St. in Topeka, finding wider aisles, high-tech coffee machines, and a brand new stainless steel kitchen where they make fresh pizzas, sandwiches and donuts every day

The late Frank Sabatini once said a good franchise is a business model that can be replicated in other communities. Sabatini, former owner of Capital City Bank, made a fortune in the Pizza Hut business in the 1970s, 80s and 90s, owning over 30 Pizza Huts at one time. But that business is not doing very well today suffering from competition from places like Casey’s.

Casey’s sells pizza by the slice and whole pizzas, along with fresh sandwiches and donuts. Casey's has some of the highest profit margins in the industry, with inside-store margins of 42.2%; anchored by high-margin prepared foods (59.3%) and non-alcoholic beverages.

Stock in Casey's was up 10% year-to-date through Oct. 2; up 125% over the past three years and up 225% over the past five years. I started buying the stock in 2020 and recently picked up a few more shares at $622 per share.

Casey's stock had been up 49% YTD, when it hit $900 per share, but it was overbought and got a little ahead of itself. After its last earnings announcement on Sept. 8, the stock got hammered, falling from $750 to $590 per share in just a couple of days. The price-to-earnings ratio was 41P/E on the top of its market cap, but has fallen to 29 P/E. I went in deep with CASY when the stock was trading at $275 per share with a 29P/E.

I'm bullish on Casey's stock long term because they know how to grow their earnings. Earnings per share in Q1 were up 27.7% to $7.37 per share and net income was up 27.1% to $272.7 million. They have seen explosive growth in prepared foods. Customers love their whole pizza pies. 

Total store count was 2,959 on July 31, 2026, up 15 stores over the previous quarter. Add at least one more location to that store count with the newest store in Topeka, which now has seven Casey's locations.

Kwik Shop had long held a dominating position in Topeka and Kansas, with ties to the Dillon Store empire founded in Hutchinson, Kansas. Kwik Shop and Dillon Stores have been part of Kroger for many years. Then in 2018, Kroger sold Kwik Shop to EG Group, aka, Euro Garages, now going through a rebranding as Cumberland Farms Group. In recent years I have not seen much reinvestment into Kwik Shop. That brought in newcomers like Max's of Huntoon, an Amoco station at 1301 SW Gage, which sells Hunt Brothers Pizza and and specialty coffee. Max's is a first class store owned by Haag Oil Co., a longtime Topeka business.

Casey's General Stores operates in 19 states. Rising operating expenses is a concern for Casey's management, but this is partly due to rising competitive wages in the grocery/convenience store/retail trade markets. You want workers? You have to pay more for the best and most dependable employees. You certainly can't pay minimum wages.

With the way inflation is eroding the US dollar, employees need higher wages to pay for higher costs of living. So sometimes an employer will have to upgrade wages.

Searches on AI Google showed Casey's wages are $13.00 to $19.00 per hour, with managers and cooks making the higher wages, this is competitive with local retail grocery store wages.

Overall, Casey's is a leader in the convenience store market. They grow by building new stores like the one in Topeka, or through acquisition. They are converting stores purchased in acquisitions, upgrading with kitchens, to serve a larger customer base in middle America. The company expects to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027. 

Yes, Casey's stock is a buy at this juncture, but the price could go lower, and if it falls to a 26 P/E, then I would consider buying more. I would recommend buying a full position in multiple purchases of a few shares at a time.

Casey's told USA TODAY it is scheduled to open stores in the following towns in the coming months:

October 2026

  • Fremont, Nebraska
  • Topeka, Kansas
  • Wilton, Iowa
  • Ankeny, Iowa
  • Waukee, Iowa
  • Valley, Nebraska
  • Mitchell, Indiana
  • Batavia, Ohio
  • Papillion, Nebraska
  • Archbold, Ohio
  • Huntingdon, Tennessee
  • Bentonville, Arkansas
  • Elkander, Iowa

November 2026

  • Mangum, Oklahoma
  • Owasso, Oklahoma
  • Green Forest, Arkansas

December 2026

  • Edwardsburg, Michigan
  • Connersville, Indiana
  • Napoleon, Ohio
  • Wapakoneta, Ohio
  • Niles, Michigan
  • Russellville, Missouri

January 2027

  • Dexter, Missouri
  • Moscow Mills, Missouri
  • Grand Haven, Michigan
  • Arma, Kansas
  • Kansas City, Kansas
  • Lee's Summit, Missouri
  • Newcastle, Oklahoma
  • Byron Center, Michigan
  • Maize, Kansas


  • Below are more photos of the new Casey's, 4020 SW 6th St., Topeka:








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