Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Activist Hedge Fund Targets Kansas-Missouri Utility


By Michael Hooper
An activist New York hedge fund led by Paul Singer sees an opportunity for creating shareholder value in Evergy, a publicly-traded electric utility in Kansas and Missouri.
Elliott Management, founded by Singer, had offered the Evergy board of directors a plan for creating shareholder value, but the board chose not to engage with the hedge fund, Elliott said.

Evergy (EVRG) stock was up 2% at $68.67 per share Tuesday on the news of Elliott Management's interest in Evergy.

Elliott's plan includes the addition of new Evergy board members and changing the way the company handles capital investments and operations; and possible sale or merger with another company.
Evergy was created with the 2018 merger of Westar Energy and Great Plains Energy.

At 2:40 p.m. today Tuesday, Evergy issued a statement saying, "In October 2019, we were approached by Elliott, which proposed two alternative paths for the Company to consider:

  1. Evergy should immediately initiate a process to explore the sale of the Company or some other business combination;  

  1. Evergy should significantly increase its capex over the Company’s current plan, cut investments in operations and maintenance (O&M) to help offset this increase, and halt its existing share repurchase program.

"Since October, we have engaged in good faith with Elliott to fully understand and evaluate their proposals.  As a part of this process, we have engaged Morgan Stanley as financial advisor and Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP as legal counsel to assist management and the Board with an evaluation of Elliott’s proposals and our strategic plan."

Evergy said, "We are open to evaluating opportunities that may create greater value and recognize that Elliott has different views regarding our strategic plan. At the same time, there are various considerations that we believe are important when evaluating the conclusions that Elliott has asserted in its letter. As expressed to Elliott, we are confident in our ability to deliver long-term growth and shareholder value creation through the execution of our strategic plan. This plan includes maximizing operational savings from our 2018 merger, the share repurchase program we committed to when this merger was completed, paying a competitive dividend and making capital investment that will drive value."

Elliott Management Corporation, a hedge fund and money manager, said it owns 11.3 million shares in Evergy, or about $760 million in market value. That is about 5% of the company. Elliott released a letter to Evergy's Board outlining steps which should result in "high-certainty, line-of-sight equity value creation of up to $5 billion, with opportunities for significant additional value creation over time."
According to the letter, Elliott sees an opportunity to achieve a significant increase in shareholder value while providing tangible benefits to all of Evergy's key stakeholders, including customers, employees and the broader communities its utilities serve. The letter asserts that a renewed focus on improving core utility operations and investing in Evergy's critical system infrastructure can rectify its prolonged underperformance, discounted valuation and associated increased cost of capital.
In the letter, Elliott stated that increased system investment would not only provide meaningfully more value to shareholders than the current strategy to repurchase shares, but would also provide clearly superior benefits to Evergy's other stakeholders, help facilitate the Company's deployment of renewables and reduce its carbon footprint. Elliott urged Evergy to immediately explore both of the following alternative paths:
Standalone Path: Implement High-Performance Plan with Enhanced Oversight – Develop and implement a high-performance plan with the direct input of certain new highly-credentialed Board- and management-level leadership, to increase critical infrastructure investment and optimize operating costs, leading to annual rate-base growth of up to 10% with no expected overall rate impact on customer bills. 

Combination Path: Pursue Strategic Premium Merger Transaction – Explore a strategic combination via a premium stock-for-stock merger, following which Evergy's new partner would oversee the implementation of a high-performance plan, leading to value creation in which Evergy's current shareholders would be able to participate by receiving stock in the combined entity.
Elliott believes either path, if executed properly, should result in high-certainty, line-of-sight equity value creation of up to $5 billion, with opportunities for significant additional value creation over time.
Elliott Management Corporation manages approximately $40.2 billion of assets. Its flagship fund, Elliott Associates, L.P., was founded in 1977, making it one of the oldest funds under continuous management. The Elliott funds' investors include pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations, funds-of-funds, high net worth individuals and families, and employees of the firm.
You may read Ellott's letter to the Evergy board here at https://energizeevergy.com/

In a November 2019 investor presentation, Evergy said it is creating shareholder value through: 

--Earnings growth driven by merger savings, cost management, infrastructure investment and share repurchases; not predicated on raising customer prices. 

--Stable base rates allow for on-going, constructive dialogue with customers, regulators, policy makers and is good for economic development.

--Strong balance sheet combined with expected earnings and dividend growth provides an attractive total shareholder return profile.

The board of directors at Evergy is led by Mark Ruelle, chairman. He is former president and CEO of Westar Energy. Terry Bassham, current president and CEO of Evergy, is also on the board of directors, he was previously chairman, president and CEO of Great Plains Energy.

Evergy said it is creating shareholder value by:

  • We are executing on our operating plan and are achieving substantial cost savings. We are on track to exceed the $550 million of cumulative net cost savings targeted through 2023 in connection with the merger.  These savings include $110 million of savings in 2019 alone – $80 million above our 2018 target.  Notably, these savings are being achieved while protecting jobs; there have been no involuntary layoffs at the Company.
  • Merger savings, share repurchases, dividends and infrastructure investments are contributing to sustainable earnings growth and competitive shareholder returns.  At this time, given the regulatory considerations in Missouri and Kansas, we believe the greatest return opportunities for Evergy’s capital beyond our current investment plan are share repurchases and growing the Company’s dividend. Together with the Company’s merger savings and incremental infrastructure investments utilizing plant in-service accounting in Missouri, we expect to deliver compounded annual earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2023.
  • Evergy’s third quarter results demonstrate the strength of the Company and the value opportunity we offer to Evergy shareholders. We delivered another solid quarter, despite regulatory headwinds. Our confidence in the business and our financial strength is reflected in the confirmation of our 2019 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00 and the 6.3% increase to our dividend, also consistent with our long-term guidance.

Evergy said, "We remain open to continuing our dialogue with Elliott. As we consider any opportunity, we are resolute in our commitment to serving the best interests of all Evergy stakeholders, including our shareholders, employees, customers and the communities we serve. The support of our regulators is very important, and we will maintain an open, collaborative dialogue with them as we – and they – consider Elliott’s views. Morgan Stanley is acting as financial advisor and Morgan, Lewis & Bockius LLP is acting as legal advisor to the Company."

Evergy provides energy to 1.6 million customers in Kansas and Missouri.

Editor's note: The author Michael Hooper owns shares of Evergy (EVRG).

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Kansas Pizza Hut Franchisee Struggles Under Debt


By Michael Hooper
The world's largest Pizza Hut franchisee is struggling under a mountain of debt, weak operating trends, and rising costs for food, labor and wages, according to Moody's Investor Services.
NPC International, of Leawood, Kan., operates 1,232 Pizza Hut restaurants and 391 Wendy's restaurants. Eldridge Industries, owner of Security Benefit in Topeka, is owner of NPC International. Sometimes Eldridge Industries and Security Benefit will invest in a deal together, such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, but Security Benefit does not own any equity or bonds in NPC International, said Joe Wittrock, chief investment officer with Security Benefit.

On Sept. 13, 2019, Moody's Investor Service downgraded the corporate debt of NPC International to junk status, Caa1-PD from B3-PD. Moody's additionally downgraded the company's first lien senior secured revolving credit facility and first lien senior secured term loan to B3 from B2, as well as the company's 2nd lien senior secured term loan to Caa3 from Caa2. The rating outlook is negative.
The downgrade to Caa1 reflects NPC's continued weak operating performance with persistent cost and margin pressure, said Adam McLaren, Moody's senior analyst. High leverage and weak interest coverage, along with elevated capital expenditure requirements have pressured the company's liquidity. For the last 12-month period ended June 25, 2019, NPC's debt-to-EBITDA was high at over 7 times, with the expectation of remaining elevated over the next 12-18 months given the challenging operating environment with pressured same-store sales and labor and margin headwinds (EBITA is Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Amortization).
Moody's said the downgrade reflects NPC's high leverage and modest interest coverage driven by weaker operating trends and cost inflation related in part to labor, wages, commodities, and pricing. Given NPC's high level of capital investment, including re-locations, new units, and remodel initiatives, it is expected that free cash flow will be constrained and liquidity to be weak. 
Moody's rating also considers NPC's limited product offering, concentrated day-part in lunch and dinner and limited geographic diversity. The rating is supported by NPC's multiple brands, meaningful scale within the Pizza Hut and Wendy's franchise system, new advertising partnerships, and dedicated brand management. The company benefits from the support of its financial sponsor, including $50 million of incremental term loan borrowings and $18 million of capital injection thus far in 2019 which provide additional liquidity to enable the company to continue to invest in remodels and re-locations, although NPC will require additional future liquidity to continue to invest at such high levels (inclusive of growth capex).
The negative outlook reflects Moody's view that the company will continue to face margin pressure over the next 12-18 months, which will weigh on operating performance and credit metrics, while investing heavily in remodels, new units, and re-locations continue to constrain liquidity. Performance improvement coupled with additional equity injections from its sponsor or other forms of liquidity could help stabilize the company's outlook, Moody's said.
David Tangeman, a Houston accountant, said investors led by Eldridge Industries paid $1.2 billion for NPC International in late 2017. The year before it was sold, NPC International's EBITA was $127.6 million. Normally, a sale like this would be around 5 to 7 times EBITA, but this sale was closer to 9 times EBITA.
"They overpaid for it," said Tangeman, adding that NPC International was saddled with about $740 million in debt after the deal. He noted investors kicked in $17.5 million through equity plus a new $50 million loan in August.
Pizza Hut was founded in 1958 in Wichita by brothers Dan and Frank Carney. In 1977, Pizza Hut was sold to PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP). Then PepsiCo spun off its restaurant business, including KFC, to Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) in 1997.
In an interview with Bloomberg Sept. 9, 2019, Todd Boehly, chairman of Eldridge Industries, was asked how he is going to salvage NPC International.
Boehly said, "Right now we're very aligned with Yum. We've got a great relationship with Yum. Yum cares deeply about Pizza Hut, we care deeply about Pizza Hut. There's no magic bullet that's going to change the fact it's been underperforming. It's performed worse than we originally anticipated. But that doesn't change our long term view of what the opportunity is with Pizza Hut. It's a tremendous brand that goes back 50-60 years. If you look at what Pizza Hut stands for people, high quality pizza, great food, great memories. We need to figure out how to make it more mobile, make it easier to get. And compete in a world where convenience is the No. 1 driver, not just quality of food."
Boehly said his strategy is to align with Yum to outperform the historical performance at NPC International.
NPC International was founded by Gene Bicknell of Kansas. But a lot has changed in the pizza business since he owned it. Some of the locations of Pizza Huts were good when they started but now are not in the ideal locations.
While Pizza Hut is growing in the international markets, the restaurants are losing sales in the US.
"In the U.S., system sales declined 2% with same-store sales declining 3% and a 1% net new unit decline. Coming off a solid second quarter, the Pizza Hut U.S. business decelerated in Q3 as changes to our value offerings helped franchisee margins, but had a negative impact on transactions," David Gibbs, Yum CFO and COO, said during third quarter earnings call, according to Seeking Alpha transcripts. "In addition, our previously announced plans to accelerate the transition to a modern delivery asset base in the U.S., while restructuring and upgrading our franchisee base also took a toll on performance. While we strongly believe that these are the right strategies to build the business for the longer term, these moves will introduce some uncertainty in the business performance over the short term, as we expect results to continue to be choppy. We caution, we could see a continuation of soft sales and unit contraction throughout 2020 in the Pizza Hut U.S. business."
Editor's note: Michael Hooper owns stock in PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP)

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Muse and Freedom


There's a circular feeling around here
About a girl named Muse and a boy named Freedom

Muse has flowers in her hair and a long flowing dress, a notebook at her side, a phone in her pocket and laughter in her soul.

Freedom is dressed in a poet jacket and he has a rapper's soul, a sing song y way to keep a vibe alive.

Muse and Freedom are cherished by my poetry comrades
They travel together, so strong the bond, we fight for their rights to live among us.

When they sing together, the prairie laughs 
and the sky opens up,
a beautiful vibe hits us just right

The boy named Freedom
He's a beatnik hippie radical lover of words
who smokes a pipe and drinks coffee
feeling a nice groove
He dances in the night
Like a wild tiger

Muse plays her flute, like a songbird in flight,
she carries the vibe higher and higher.
The wind her friend in her artistic journey
colors all around her
sunshine in her eyes

Together Muse and Freedom sing songs against violence, and champion the rapper speech calling for peace and hope for new generations.

Sometimes they are mad to see a new dimension, and mad to dance, mad to talk all night.

They never stop going
until they crash and burn out of fuel

Muse and Freedom, they are my sister and brother,
we poets must keep them alive
take them with us everywhere we go,
like lovers un-separated.

I will keep in my soul,
Muse and Freedom
you are blood to me


--Michael Hooper
Oct. 17, 2019

Monday, October 14, 2019

Fred Phelps And The Literature of a Post-Cult Memoir





By Michael Hooper

The memoir has become a popular genre for writers in this modern era. Rock stars, movie actors, journalists, recovering drug addicts, politicians are all producing memoirs. Add to that the literature of the post-cult memoir documenting the descent and rise from a cult.

Unfollow by Megan Phelps-Roper, and the Girl at the End of the World by Elizabeth Esther, fall into this post-cult genre. Both books are by the granddaughters of the founders of their cults. Both women grew up in a very strict fundamental household. And both somehow found the courage to escape.

Each book hits close to home for me because I live in Topeka, Kan., where my wife and I were both verbally assaulted by the Phelps clan. When they protested at soldiers funerals, I actually sent money to a grieving parent to fight the Phelpses in a lawsuit against them. The lawsuit against the Phelpses' protest at a soldier's funeral went all the way to the Supreme Court. The Phelpses, known for their slogans God Hates Fags and Thank God For Dead Soldiers, won the lawsuit. And I was a member of Elizabeth Esther's grandfather's cult in the early 1980s.

Unfollow is the dramatic look inside of a cult that hurt a lot of people. The author tells the story of Fred Phelps, the founder of the Westboro Baptist Church. Megan Phelps-Roper takes us back to the beginning when Fred Phelps first saw two men come out from the bushes at Gage Park in Topeka. He discovered that gay men met in the park to have sex. Phelps had previously been an advocate for the rights of African Americans. As an attorney he helped them win lawsuits against people and employers for discrimination. But after Phelps was disbarred from practicing in Kansas, he looked for another passion.

When I first arrived in Topeka in 1999 I was shocked to see all of these protesters holding repulsive signs raging against homosexuals. I said something to them at the corner of 10th and Gage, "Why are you doing this? This is terrible." And one protester called me a "fag." 'Oh really, you don't even know me," I said. My wife was going to a midnight mass on Dec. 31, 1999, and they taunted her and called people derogatory names. The Phelpses, many of them lawyers, want you to get angry at them and sue them so they could collect attorney fees. They knew they had the protection of the First Amendment, the right to free speech. But you don't see them protesting in England or Germany, where hate speech is not allowed.

The author Megan Phelps-Roper does a good job describing the hypocrisy of the positions in the church. Jesus says love your neighbor as yourself. Yet how come church members show so much hatred and antagonism toward their neighbors? Jesus says pray for your enemies. Yet Fred Phelps prayed that God would kill his enemies. The Phelpses lied about being at protests in London when they weren't actually there. Yet the Bible says the Lord hates a lying tongue and a false witness that speaks lies. The Phelpses also advocated death for criminals. Yet Jesus said he who is without sin may cast the first stone.

All these hypocrisies finally got to the questioning mind of Megan Phelps-Roper. She tried to question the elders but she was always put down. She was disturbed by the way the elders had disgraced her mother. Her sister Grace wanted a Mac but an elder named Steve said she should get a PC. Steve pestered her parents for weeks afterward arguing that his reasons for remaining with the status quo were worth following. "It seemed embarrassing at the time because it was clear that Steve only cared about the issue because he wanted to be obeyed," the author wrote.
Eventually Megan woke up to all of these hypocrisies and realized that the elders really wanted superiority and control. They had developed a toxic sense of certainty in their own righteousness.

A key moment for Megan is on page 159:

"I crossed a chasm in that split second, pursuing a thought my mind had never truly imagined and now could never take back. With stark clarity I understood that whether the church was wrong or right, I was a monster. If we were wrong, then I had spent every day of my life industriously sewing doom, discord and rage to so many -- not at the behest of God but of my grandfather. I had wasted my life only to fill others with pain and misery. And if the church was right? Then asking those questions and even beginning to consider their implications was an unforgivable betrayal of everyone I had ever loved and the ideals I dedicated my life to defending. In my mind I was a betrayer already."

Megan and her sister Grace eventually left the church. They received help from former members of the church who had left in exile, and a family in South Dakota. They also received help from people they used to argue with, the Booksteins of Jewlicious.com, who took them in and cared for them. It's funny I used to see the Phelpses protest in front of Temple Beth Shalom in Topeka on Friday evenings. Years later, here are the Jews helping two exiles of the Phelps clan. In this case who is loving their enemies?

The story of Elizabeth Esther in the Girl at the End of the World is also very personal because I was a member of that group in 1982-83 led by Rod, Mike and Dave Zach in Hastings and Omaha, Nebraska. Elizabeth was the granddaughter of the founder, George Geftakys based in Fullerton, Calif. They did not believe in celebrating Christmas, they did not believe in employing psychologists; they were fundamentalists who targeted college students because they were vulnerable and wanted a community to be part of. They lived together and made high demands of members, about 20 hours per week of Bible study, prayer meetings and worship. They made women be subservient to men and wear head coverings in meetings. They spanked their children. They took the Bible literally as the Word of God.

Eventually, members of the Assembly began to question the integrity of their leader George Geftakys. A web site geftakysassembly.com exposed the corruption in his ministry. George was removed from the Fullerton Assembly around 2003. George was having adulterous affairs and covering up his son’s domestic abuse. What’s sad is that many people gave over 20 years of their life to this man and his group and now feel ashamed and duped. The geftakysassembly.com says, It is crushing to realize that for 20 years we gave our lives to something that was wrong on so many levels. We are deeply grieved for the damage we perpetrated on others. Our work on this website is part of our effort to try to make amends in some small way.”

The Zachs would say, “He’s no longer walking with the Lord,” when I asked about a person who stopped coming to meetings. Who are they to judge? How do they know whether someone is walking with the Lord? I finally woke up to their wrongs. Some wrongs I didn’t see right away. They always had a Bible scripture to back of their behaviors. I feel lucky that I got out after about 18 months. My salvation was really my free will, the ability to make decisions for myself.

And that is the heart of the issue: control. Leaders of cults want total control over their members. The Zachs didn't want me to leave Hastings, Neb., they wanted me to stay there and build up their church. I am so glad I had the fortitude to leave!

Megan Phelps-Roper discusses the last days of Fred Phelps when he was removed from the church. He walked out of the church to address the young people running the Equality House, a global symbol of the LGBT rights, across the street. "You're good people," he said to them before he was hustled back inside by church members. Shortly thereafter Fred Phelps was put in hospice and died.

It's interesting how the third generation of the cults mentioned here found themselves inside a place they knew they didn't belong. I wonder how the fourth generation of Phelpses will feel about their behaviors? I still see them protesting from time to time. I hope some day the Westboro Baptist Church either implodes or changes and stops hating gays and starts loving people, all people.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

50% to 60% Chance of Recession, Economist Says


                          Ernie Goss

By Michael Hooper

There is a 50% to 60% chance of a recession in the United States in 2020, according to Ernie Goss, economics professor at Creighton University.

The United States needs a trade agreement with China. Without it, farmers are likely to continue to suffer, Goss said Wednesday at Washburn University.

Goss said he disagrees with President Trump how he is handling trade with China. He agrees there is intellectual theft but he isn't sure how to solve it, and Trump hasn't come up with the solution either.

Goss said exports are facing headwinds because of a lack of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China. He said 34% of exports in Kansas are food. That number is 51.6% in Nebraska. For years much of those exports were grain shipped to China. But China has halted some of its purchases of grain from the United States due to trade tariffs enacted by Trump.

So there is substantial risk to the agricultural market if no trade agreement is reached, Goss said.

"This trade war hurts us more than others," Goss said.

Farmers also have suffered losses due to bad weather. He said farm loan defaults are rising. Congress gave a lifeline of $12 billion in subsidies last year to farmers to help them out as a result of the trade wars with China. Congress gave $16 billion to farmers this year. Are they going to give another $18 billion next year? Goss asked.

Manufacturing, agriculture and energy have suffered declines this year, he said. Every other sector of the economy is doing okay.

Interest rates are low, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again. Interest rates in some places like Japan and Europe are negative.

"Fear is gripping the world," Goss said.

The greater fool theory is moving the bond market. People are paying high prices for bonds thinking that prices will go even higher, he said.

Outlooks for returns are modest.

He said stocks' rate of return is around 3%. The farm ETF MOO is about 3.75%. Agriculture land is -4%. Ag equipment -7.8 %. And home price return is just below 3%.

Under Trump, the federal deficit has increased 27%. Young people seem not to care about the deficit. Someday the deficits will result in higher interest rates, higher inflation, and higher taxes, Goss said.

He said the North American Trade Accord should be passed by Congress. The agreement would support trade between the US, Canada and Mexico.

Goss is also principal of the Goss Institute for Economic Research in Denver. He is an expert on the Midwest economy. He is editor of Economic Trends, a monthly economics newsletter.

His talk at Washburn University in Topeka was part of the 2019 Lecture Series in Economics and Free Enterprise.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Lower Rail Volumes Indicate Slowdown In US Economy


By Michael Hooper

If railroad volumes are the tea leaves for the economy, the American economy is likely to slow down in the third quarter.

Total traffic in the first 34 weeks of 2019  on US railroads railroads was 8.6 million carloads, down 3.4% from the same point last year and 9,055,095 intermodal units, down 3.8% from last year, according to the Association of American Railroads.

Traffic in Week 34, ended Aug. 24, 2019, on U.S. railroads fell 5.9% compared with the same week in 2018.

I've been watching these railroad volumes for many years. Short-term changes in volumes don't mean much, but when there is a continuous steady decline in overall traffic -- like there is now -- GDP usually declines. The railroads carry heavy freight such as autos, metals, grains, and merchandise in containers shipped from Asia. Shipment of containers are down for US railroads compared to a year ago.

Intermodal traffic at Union Pacific Railroad was down 4% year-to-date through week 35, according to its weekly carload report on its website.

Union Pacific Railroad reported a decline of 11% in the shipment of intermodal containers in week 35 compared to volumes in week 35 a year ago. UP's third-quarter-to-date shipments of containers were down 10%. Containers with goods or merchandise are often shipped by boat from Asia to ports on the West Coast where Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe pick them up and carry them to Chicago and elsewhere.

In an SEC filing on Sep. 4, 2019, Robert M. Knight, Jr., executive vice president and chief financial officer of Union Pacific, lowered UP's outlook for the second half of 2019. The filing says Knight presented at the Cowen & Company 12th Annual Global Transportation Conference. In Knight’s prepared remarks he confirmed the company’s expectation of a sub-61% operating ratio for full-year 2019, while updating the company’s volume guidance, stating that the company now anticipates volume for the second half of 2019 to be down mid-single digits as compared to the second half of 2018, versus a previous estimate of down 2%.

BNSF Railway container traffic declined 4% year-to-date and trailer traffic was down 10% year-to-date, according to its weekly volume reports.

Just about all categories of freight are down so far this year at BNSF except chemicals, nonmetallic minerals, grain mills and petroleum, according to its weekly carload reports. Petroleum volumes were actually up 26% year-to-date at BNSF, which owns tracks in the Dakotas, where there is substantial drilling in the Bakken.

BNSF saw declines YTD in grain, coal, autos, lumber and wood and steel and scrap. Lumber and wood really fell off in week 34 at BNSF, declining 18%, and down 8% third quarter to date. Third quarter ends Sept. 30.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 49.1% in August from 51.2% in July.
Any reading below 50% indicates a contraction in activity. This is the lowest reading since January 2016. This means there is a slowdown occurring in manufacturing. Manufacturing is about 11.6% of the U.S. economic output.
Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP.

Trade tariffs are likely a driver of the decline in railroad traffic, specifically the container and grain traffic between China and the United States.

Disclosure: Michael Hooper owns shares of Union Pacific (UNP) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), owner of BNSF Railway.

Saturday, August 24, 2019

I Fall Down



I run too hard, I'm a mania of sorts,
I go to extremes, to see explosions of light across the sky, 
to feel love, to see the majestic, the eternal.

I climb too high, I go too far, I say too much.
And now I hurt

I'm slipping down, let me fall, there's no climbing from here

Yet I ask myself, what would life be without the extremes,
without the OCDs, the artist who stays awake 24 hours chasing a muse. Life would be dull for sure.

All the agony 
And hate in this world
Kind of gets me down
with a pain in my side
Now here I am standing on my knees

I'm slipping down, let me fall.
I can't seem to do it any other way
I'm falling down, let me be

I walk into the rain,
just to feel droplets of water on my body
I'm soaked, but I don't mind

Sometimes I just need to 
work myself out of this pain
drink water and rest 
Read 1000 pages
Shower for an hour
and
start dreaming again

I get up and move slowly
I got an idea, now working it
I feel a good vibe going here
Seeing new dimensions, man

Now I start running
faster ever farther
The trail opens wide
I run into fields of flowers
scented by lavender and pine
Sunshine melts my vision
into yellow and gold

I burn burn burn
in the cycle of life
Until I crash again
half alive
on my knees

I crawl, I ache
I cry

I'm slipping down
let me fall
there's no climbing from here

I'm falling down
let me be
there's no climbing from here



--Michael Hooper, August 2019