Saturday, June 24, 2023

Into The Mystic Flint Hills

Mission Valley Ranch, oil on canvas, 10" x 14"


By Michael Hooper

Joy, reverence, gratefulness and awe were some of the feelings I experienced while painting at Mission Valley Ranch, near Alma, Kansas. This experience on Father’s Day was meaningful for me because I had been dreaming of painting in the Flint Hills for years. 


In my early days as a business reporter, I had written a story about Bill Hogue, a homebuilder and rancher, who owns the Mission Valley Ranch with his wife, Kathy. I had visited their ranch near Dover, but had never been to their ranch near Alma so this was a treat. The trip was arranged by Ye Wang, art professor at Washburn University.


Entering the ranch, I was thunderstruck by the huge vista over this land, we drove down into a valley, where I saw a house and two tiny cabins made of stone. Lots of Kansas limestone in these structures.


I listened to the wind, and the sound of leaves blowing, occasionally a cow mooing. Nature is so loud it’s like an orchestra if you listen to it.


Ye Wang set up his painting station on a road under trees near a creek. I wanted to be closer to the prairie with a view of the Flint Hills. My wife, Heather and I drove farther into the ranch, and then I set up next to an alfalfa field that was surrounded by rolling hills and trees. As I set up my painting station, several cows walked near me. It had rained the night before, but now the clouds were thinning out, and I felt the warmth of the sun.


Connected to nature, yes, that is the awakening point in my soul. I laid out a composition pretty quickly and started painting, feeling a sense of the forms and their values.  I filled my canvas with deep greens in the forest, the light yellow green on the hillside, and the gray blue sky coming through the clouds, the intricate blue green alfalfa with a few weeds thrown in, including some ditch weed, all part of my painting. The grass on the road fell to a golden touch. My wife took a nap.


Reading the words of Abraham Joshua Heschel, I am contemplating his notion that we need to approach God with a sense of awe and wonder in order to connect with Him. It is not hard for me to approach God with a sense of awe because he created the universe and the stars and the Earth and this majestic land. His universe is still being created. His artistry is in full scale production, on Earth and in the far-reaches of the universe, where new stars are born. But most people would not be contemplating this idea — God as artist — because they have their heads buried into their phone, watching reels on Instagram.


“As civilization advances, the sense of wonder almost necessarily declines,” wrote Abraham Joshua Heschel, in Thunder in the Soul. “Such decline is an alarming symptom of our state of mind. Mankind will not perish for want of information, but only for want of appreciation. The beginning of our happiness lies in the understanding of life without wonder is not worth living. What we lack is not a will to believe but a will to wonder.”


Nature exhibits this sense of wonder and curiosity. A hummingbird flew toward me, hovered and checked me out. We locked eyes and then he flew back into a tree. Insects continue to fly into my space, I’m afraid they are doomed if they get into my paint. I shoo them away.


Heather and I enjoyed a picnic with cold fried chicken, grapes and chips. My painting was nearly finished. We went for a walk along the ranch road, the alfalfa field on our left and a hillside with trees at our right. Multiple paintings could be had in this moving landscape. 


On the way out, we stopped to look at Ye Wang’s painting. This man is brilliant with brush and paint. He chooses the best compositions; his painting of the road and creek under the trees is magical. Heather took our picture together.



Heather and I drove through the hills and took a selfie at the top of a hill southeast of Alma. I am immensely grateful to Bill and Kathy Hogue for letting us visit their ranch. And thank you Ye Wang for arranging this special day.


That night, I slept with superior contentment. In the morning, I felt a rapturous thrill waking up and thinking, how lucky for me, I get to enjoy another day. With a cup of coffee in hand, I walked through my garden into my shed/art studio, where I touched up my landscape painting. 

I look at my composition, it takes me back to the subject. It's a reminder of that wondrous mystical encounter in the Flint Hills.





Friday, June 9, 2023

Should You Use AI For Stock Research?

Google Bard 

By Michael Hooper

Investors are facing a new future with AI in stock research. Google's Bard will predict future stock prices.

If you ask Bard what will be a stock's price at year end, it spits out a short report with a prediction, but be careful, some of the information may be incorrect.

Microsoft's ChatGPT uses a more cautious approach when asked about the direction of a stock or index.

I asked what will be the price of Alphabet stock (GOOG) by year end? Bard answered, saying, "The price of Alphabet stock by year end is difficult to predict with certainty. However, based on its current price of $124.66 and the company's financial performance, it is possible the stock will reach $130-$140 by year end 2023. Alphabet is a well-established company with a strong record of profitability. The company's revenue and earnings have been growing steadily in recent years, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future. Alphabet also has a strong dividend yield, which makes it an attractive investment for income-oriented investors." What? That’s not right. Google does not pay a dividend. This error is startling because Google owns Bard so the company can’t even get its own information correct on its stock.

I also asked what the price of Union Pacific (UNP) stock will be by year end. Bard answered incorrectly, saying it had a current price of $147.65, which is totally wrong. The price is around $200 per share. Bard got the dividend on the stock correct, but said it faces competition from BNSF Railway (true) and CSX (less so).

I was modestly impressed with Bard's answer to my question on what will be the price of Hershey (HSY) by year end. Bard predicted the stock could reach $260-$270 by year end. The stock had already reached that price earlier this year. The stock is currently around $254 per share. Argus Research, written by a real person (Taylor Conrad), has a price target of $315 per share.

Performance of  Spider S&P 500 Etf (SPY) so far this year


I also was modestly impressed with Bard's prediction of Spider S&P 500 Etf (SPY). "The price of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by year end is difficult to predict with certainty. However, based on its current price of $426.62 and the company's financial performance, it is possible that the ETF could reach $430-$440 by the end of 2023. SPY is a well-established ETF with a strong track record of profitability. The ETF's assets under management and trading volume have been growing steadily in recent years, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future. SPY also has a low expense ratio, which makes it an attractive investment for cost-conscious investors." All that is fairly solid.

ChatGPT 

ChatGPT was a little more cautious about stock price outlooks, not offering any price prediction, and actually recommending that you talk to a financial advisor about possible stock purchases. I thought this was wise given that it has not figured out how to present a thorough analysis yet.

I think Google rushed out Bard in order to get it in the marketplace to compete against ChatGPT, but in the area of stocks, Bard needs improvement.

I plan to keep an open mind about using AI for stock research, but right now both Bard and ChatGPT are poorly faltering behind real people and real analysts. Indeed, you are better off reading stories, pro and con about a stock on Seeking Alpha than depending solely on AI for your research. 

I predict Google and Microsoft will work to make these AI tools more accurate and thorough in the field of stock research in the future. They need software to prevent errors on basic stuff like stock prices, dividend yield, plus they need more in-depth analysis, not just a formula viewpoint. Even better would be to bring in both pro and con positions on stocks and Etfs, commodities and crypto. I see huge opportunities in the financial space with AI, this field is going to blow wide open. The winners will have unmatched got-to-have-it capabilities.

Author Michael Hooper owns shares of Hershey, Google, Microsoft, Union Pacific and SPY.